Visión del equipo de Renta Variable España (Marzo 2020)

Visión del equipo de Gestión de Renta Variable España

No aportamos nada nuevo si afirmamos que los estragos que está dejando el COVID-19 en las bolsas son históricos. La semana pasada las bolsas sufrieron caídas sin precedentes, en concreto el jueves 12 de marzo, donde el Ibex 35 registró la mayor caída de la historia (-14%) por la prohibición de viajar a EEUU desde Europa dada la rápida propagación el virus, unido a la decepción de las medidas del BCE que, a pesar de abrir la mano con la liquidez y flexibilizar las normas de capital a la banca, mantuvo los tipos de interés inalterados.

Es posible que las caídas acumuladas por las bolsas en 2020 ya sean superiores al daño real que esta crisis sanitaria terminará provocando sobre el crecimiento económico y los resultados empresariales. Sin embargo, la falta de visibilidad actual nos hace extremar la prudencia. Nadie sabe el impacto que esta crisis sanitaria va a tener en la economía y en las cuentas de resultados, puesto que se produce por un factor exógeno a la economía, de ahí la imposibilidad de evitar el golpe, y hasta que no se comiencen a ver indicios serios de que la pandemia está bajo control o se anuncia un tratamiento/vacuna eficaz contra el virus, la tensión y volatilidad en las bolsas continuará.

¿Qué estamos haciendo?

En este escenario tan complejo, el mensaje que queremos transmitir es el de mantener la serenidad. Los daños reales sobre PIBs y beneficios empresariales no son ilimitados, sino limitados. Tal vez un trimestre pésimo, puede que dos, pero de ahí se producirá la recuperación y el efecto rebote, como con la reconstrucción después de un terremoto.

Y en este sentido los gobiernos son la clave. Transmitir un mensaje rotundo de “asistencia infinita” a empresas, sobre todo a pymes y medidas que consigan paliar el impacto económico de las restricciones sociales impuestas. Francia, Alemania y España por fin empiezan a adoptar medidas de cierta dimensión (importes que suponen entre el 13% y el 20% del PIB).

La rotación de la cartera llevada a cabo hace unas semanas desde sectores más cíclicos, incluyendo la venta o reducción de valores relacionados con el ciclo económico (bancos, petroleras) y la salida de aquellos sectores directamente vinculados a la menor actividad que van a sufrir por las medidas de restricción adoptadas por los gobiernos (hoteles, aerolíneas, retail) unido al mayor peso de sectores defensivos como eléctricas renovables, salud, telecoms y concesionarias ha conseguido mitigar parte de las fuertes caídas vividas durante estas semanas.

¿Un mensaje final?

Por último, queremos transmitir un mensaje de confianza. Confianza basada en la transparencia y accesibilidad a todo el equipo de análisis y gestión. La cartera de los fondos se compone de sólidas compañías, con buenos negocios, exhaustivamente analizadas con un seguimiento diario de las mismas, con equipos de gestión de probada experiencia en diferentes momentos del ciclo económico, compañías de calidad, con bajo endeudamiento o con una estructura de deuda muy sólida, y que toda esta volatilidad e incertidumbre del mercado les ha llevado a cotizar a precios de recesión cuando sus negocios están muy protegidos del impacto que pueda tener el COVID-19.

 

 

 

 

 

Nuestros fondos

Trea Iberia Equity

 

gestión

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