Los inversores deben tener en cuenta el impacto social de las inversiones

Los inversores deben tener en cuenta el impacto social de las inversiones

En estos días de pánico generalizado, un producto de vital necesidad hoy en día, las mascarillas, está agotado. Parece lógico si consideramos que la demanda ha crecido exponencialmente y que en España sólo haya un productor de mascarillas (Sibol), que trabaja a destajo para cubrir una pequeña parte de la demanda. Parece una consecuencia política el haber podido importar mascarillas y demás material médico de China, obviando el hecho que parte de este material es defectuoso. De esta anécdota subyace uno de los problemas en España y de Occidente y que deriva de la falta de alineamiento de intereses.

Durante las últimas dos décadas, EEUU y Europa han sufrido un proceso de desindustrialización muy importante con un claro perdedor: la clase media, que se ha convertido en la clase media-baja. El exceso en la deslocalización de la producción a Asia ha reducido los costes de producción y los beneficios empresariales de las empresas que lo han llevado a cabo. La globalización, la deslocalización de la producción y la excesiva “financiarización” de la economía, junto con otros factores como la creciente robotización y digitalización han llevado a niveles récord en la desigualdad de la riqueza en el planeta.

A medida que entramos en una de las crisis económicas más intensas de los últimos 50 años, el riesgo financiero aumenta, pero también lo hace el riesgo social (especialmente entre las capas de población más vulnerables) y el riesgo político (abriendo la puerta a extremismos). Estas crisis seguramente pondrán a prueba la fortaleza de la Unión Europea.

Cuando nos recuperemos de esta gran crisis de salud pública como es el COVID-19, sabremos el impacto económico de la misma, y será el momento de actuar y corregir la falta de alineamiento de intereses en el mundo financiero que continúa trayendo consecuencias indeseables.

¿Están realmente los incentivos alineados?

En el capitalismo, el mejor sistema económico que conocemos (o, por lo menos el menos malo), el sector productivo es mayoritariamente el resultado de las decisiones de empresarios (accionistas), que arriesgan su dinero para llevar a cabo una actividad económica. Estos accionistas quieren que el valor de las acciones aumente y para ello contratan equipos gestores que a su vez cuentan con paquetes de remuneración que consisten en planes de opciones sobre acciones: es decir, si el precio de las acciones aumenta, ellos ganan dinero, y si aumenta mucho, pueden ganar fortunas.

Recientemente se anunció que Boeing necesitaba ser rescatada por los contribuyentes estadounidense , ya que constituye lógicamente una empresa totalmente estratégica para el país. ¿Por qué una empresa tan potente como Boeing, cuyas acciones subieron más de 200% en 3 años, necesita un rescate? Hay potencialmente varias razones para ello, y el colapso del tráfico aéreo tiene un efecto muy negativo en nuevos pedidos de aviones, pero, sin duda, el haber gastado en la recompra de acciones un valor de unos 40.000 millones de dólares (una de las principales razones por la subida de las acciones) no ayuda. Si Boeing no se hubiera gastado esa cantidad en recomprar las acciones, el rescate no hubiera sido necesario o sería por un monto muy inferior.

Es fácil ver cuál es la forma más rápida y fácil de aumentar el valor de tus acciones en un entorno de tipo de interés cero casi cero: no es innovando, mejorando productos o procesos productivos, abriendo nuevos mercados, etc. Eso es lento y costoso. La forma más fácil es coger una cantidad elevada de deuda barata para recomprar y amortizar acciones. Llámese recompra de acciones en mercado (buybacks) en empresas cotizadas o leveraged buy-outs en empresas no cotizadas.

La inversión debe ser responsable (impacto social de las inversiones)

Para entender el Impacto Social del mundo empresarial, es importante entender que las partes interesadas (los “stakeholders”) en una empresa no son solo los accionistas y acreedores, sino que están también los trabajadores (cuya principal fuente de ingresos suele ser los salarios que perciben de la empresa), los gobiernos (que recaudan impuestos de la empresa y de los trabajadores de la empresa para financiar el gasto público), los clientes (que pueden depender financieramente o personalmente de tus productos), los proveedores y la sociedad como un todo, que sufre (o se beneficia) de las externalidades negativas (o positivas) que pueda causar la empresa.

Una externalidad es el efecto (positivo o negativo) que tiene sobre una tercera parte una actividad que esta tercera parte no ha decidido llevar a cabo. Es decir, los efectos que tienen sobre ti las decisiones de otra persona o empresa.

Veamos el ejemplo de un fondo que compra una empresa solida a través de un leveraged buy-out, apalancándola 7 veces EBITDA. De esta forma se reduce el capital necesario para comprar la empresa y sube la rentabilidad de su inversión al venderla. Pero asumamos que en un momento dado la demanda baja y como resultado del alto endeudamiento la empresa quiebra. El elevado endeudamiento introducido en la empresa ha producido una externalidad negativa a los stakeholders.

Comparémoslo con otra situación, en la que un fondo inyecta capital en una empresa para expandir capacidad en el país, lo que va a requerir también contratar nuevos empleados. Si la empresa va bien ha creado externalidades positivas en los stakeholders.

Actualmente los inversores que invierten en el Caso A no pagan las potenciales externalidades negativas que traía el apalancamiento tan elevado (riesgo de desempleo, menor recaudación de impuestos y seguramente menor producción nacional, que quizá sea sustituida por importaciones, aumentando el déficit comercial).

Los inversores que invierten en el Caso B actualmente no se benefician de las externalidades positivas que están creando al contratar nuevos trabajadores, aumentando la masa salarial y la producción, lo que implica también mayor recaudación tributaria).

Es hora de cambiar el foco del sistema financiero para salvar Europa (impacto social de las inversiones)

Los gobiernos deben empezar a incentivar y/o subsidiar (con incentivos fiscales) las inversiones financieras en actividades productivas que generen externalidades positivas. Demasiado capital se ha direccionado a ingeniería financiera (sea a través de operaciones de leveraged buyout o de apalancamiento para recompra de acciones) y no se ha dado el enfoque necesario en inversiones que consumen más tiempo y esfuerzo, pero que generan valor a nivel agregado.

Ha llegado el momento de poner en la ecuación de precio y rentabilidad las externalidades, ya que el sector privado hasta ahora no lo hace. La reindustralización es de vital importancia especialmente para España. No tanto porque nos falten mascarillas, que también, sino porque España es un país con un desempleo permanentemente alto y con una deuda externa enorme. Se ha de priorizar inversión productiva que genere empleo, reduzca importaciones y recursos que puedan mantener el estado de bienestar.

Utilicemos esta crisis para cambiar el foco y construir una economía que funcione para los ciudadanos y los países. Los inversores deben exigir responsabilidad social a sus inversiones, así como a gobiernos e instituciones.

La rentabilidad financiera ha de obtenerse cuando se crea valor y no cuando se usa ingeniería financiera que ponen a los stakeholders y a la sociedad como un todo en una situación de mayor riesgo.

Cambiemos las prioridades e incentivos para el bien de todos.

 

Ignacio Díez, Founding Partner TDL

Encuentra Los inversores deben tener en cuenta el impacto social de las inversiones enExpansión

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