Carta al inversor – Situación de los mercados

5 de mayo de 2020

Querido partícipe,

Queremos compartir con vosotros nuestra visión sobre la situación actual de los mercados y el posicionamiento de nuestras carteras.

Los datos macroeconómicos adelantados referentes al primer mes de confinamiento en la Eurozona y Estados Unidos han desvelado la caída de la confianza del consumidor, corroborando los datos negativos que ya se anunciaron de los PMI Servicios (índice de actividad del sector privado y que se utiliza como indicador de lo que ocurre en la economía). Esta debilidad era esperada, y todas las estimaciones se centran ahora en valorar la recuperación de los próximos meses.  El consenso es de un escenario en el que se volverá a la actividad normal durante el próximo verano, y a tenor de lo visto en China, las manufacturas mejorarán más rápido, mientras que la demanda interna, que supone un 2/3 del PIB en las economías desarrolladas, se recuperará más lentamente.

El esfuerzo de los bancos centrales para paliar los efectos del Covid-19 en forma de estímulos monetarios y fiscales continua. En Japón el banco central anunció que iniciaba un programa de compra de activos (también conocido como QE) infinito, quitando las limitaciones en la compra de bonos corporativos. En la Eurozona, los acuerdos para los paquetes de estímulos fiscales parece que se alargarán algunos meses y, en cualquier caso, no empezarán hasta 2021. En Estados Unidos se aprobó un nuevo plan de estímulos de casi 500.000 millones de dólares para ayudar a pequeñas empresas y familias, que se añade a los que se llevan implementando desde Marzo.

En los mercados de renta fija, ha sido una semana muy tranquila, en la que los diferenciales de crédito se han mantenido estables, apoyados por las compras de bonos de los bancos centrales. Los bonos de gobierno fueron los que mejor se comportaron empujando en Estados Unidos las tires a mínimos de año. En la Eurozona, el rating de Italia se ha mantenido en “grado de inversión” (BBB) a pesar que las agencias de calificación asumen un aumento del déficit y de la deuda sobre PIB. Los bonos de mayor riesgo, high yield, siguen quedándose atrás en momentos de subida, al igual que los bonos de países emergentes.

En cuanto a los mercados de renta variable, la semana pasada los índices volvieron a caer, afectados a principios de la misma, por el shock en el precio del petróleo debido al fuerte desajuste entre oferta y demanda. Esto llevó al futuro del West Texas a cotizar en negativo. A finales de semana, la frustración provocada con respecto a los resultados de un medicamento experimental (Remdesivir) que la estadounidense Gilead Science estaba probando en pacientes con Covid-19, también produjo caídas en los índices ya que no se ha producido diferencia significativa en el resultado de los pacientes que estuvieron tomando el producto y de los que no. A pesar de esto, las noticias han mejorado durante lo que llevamos de semana por las noticias del desconfinamiento, el precio del petróleo, y nuevos avances con el medicamento del Covid-19, lo que ha tenido una tendencia alcista en los índices de renta variable.

 

¿Qué estamos haciendo?

 

  • Posicionamiento defensivo y potencial de revalorización en todas las carteras: Seguimos siendo prudentes y mantenemos las carteras con un posicionamiento muy defensivo. Es decir, con niveles elevados de liquidez, alto potencial de revalorización y nombres solidos y conocidos en cartera. La composición actual del fondo, y la estrategia de los gestores, ha permitido que se beneficiasen de las subidas de las ultimas semanas y que tengan unas rentabilidades del mes de abril superiores, en la mayoría de los casos, a las de sus índices de referencia.
  • Mantener la calma y estar tranquilos. Los fondos de renta fija siguen teniendo una rentabilidad interna atractiva.

 

¿Cómo están posicionados nuestros fondos?

 

  • Renta Fija: Esta semana hemos reducido el peso en High Yield, tanto en corporativos, aprovechando la recuperación que habían experimentado, como en financieros, dejándolo en 29% y manteniendo una duración baja de 2,41. En deuda emergentes también hemos reducido la posición ya que hemos tenido algún vencimiento que no hemos renovado. La duración es de 3,21 años. La posición de liquidez se mantiene en un 8.5% ligeramente inferior a la semana pasada ya que hemos incrementado ligeramente la posición de deuda a medio plazo de corporaciones y del sector financiero, con nombres sólidos; y también hemos aumentado la posición en deuda pública mediante la compra del bono sindicado a 10 años de España, e incrementamos la posición en bonos de Portugal en la parte media de la curva.

 

  • Renta Variable España: El Ibex 35 cerró la semana con una caída del -3.81% arrastrado por los grandes valores. El sector bancario también fue uno de los que peor se comportaron. Durante la semana, se incrementó el peso en Viscofán (en vista de los buenos resultados que esperábamos y que confirmó el viernes al cierre), Grifols, Applus, ArcelorMittal, Iberdrola, y se ha empezado a construir una posición en Pharmamar. Por el lado de las desinversiones, se vendió toda la posición en Acciona, antes de que la compañía anunciase que reducía a la mitad el dividendo, y se ha reducido la posición en Repsol, Catalana Occidente e Iberpapel.

 

  • Renta Variable Europa: Pocos cambios en la cartera durante la semana. Se ha transferido un 2% de la cartera del sector financiero al tecnológico, en especial en ASM International, empresa que vende aparatos que permiten la deposición atómica en los chips. Continuamos teniendo la cartera con una sobreponderación en farma e industriales. Estos dos sectores junto con el consumo no cíclico componen un 30% de la cartera, mientras que del restante, un 14% esta en industrial y un 9% en tecnología.

 

¿Que vamos a hacer?

Durante esta semana, se han seguido publicando datos del impacto real del Covid-19 en la economía, tanto a través de indicadores macroeconómicos como resultados empresariales, lo que ha mantenido la volatilidad en los mercados. El positivismo durante la semana deriva de las acciones de los bancos centrales que siguen sosteniendo el mercado a través de los programas de compra de bonos, ampliándolos a los distintos niveles de calidad crediticia, las noticias sobre un posible desconfinamiento y la progresiva reactivación de la economía. Durante la semana, las rentabilidades positivas han asomado de nuevo y han traído con ellas cierto optimismo. Aun así, vamos a seguir manteniendo la calma y el posicionamiento defensivo de las carteras. Estamos tranquilos con la composición actual y confiamos en su potencial de revalorización en el largo plazo. Queremos seguir transmitiendo un mensaje de confianza y de esperanza. Somos prudentes, pero también pensamos que los mercados recuperarán la normalidad, como han demostrado hacerlo a lo largo de la historia. Debemos confiar en la calidad del equipo gestor, en su labor, y en su capacidad para mitigar las caídas y beneficiarse en el futuro de las subidas de mercado.

 

 

Nuestros Fondos

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