Comentario Trea EM Credit Opportunities (diciembre)

TREA SICAV Emerging Markets Credit Opportunities EUR Hedged(Clase E)
Comentario Mensual – Deuda emergente – Diciembre 2019

Objetivo de Inversión el fondo de deuda emergente

El Trea Emerging Markets Credit Opportunities tiene como objetivo de inversión generar alfa invirtiendo en activos de  deuda emergente mediante ideas de alta convicción. Esto incluye crédito corporativo, deuda soberana y cuasi-soberana en las principales divisas (hard currency). Este fondo tiene una estrategia activa de gestión del riesgo y cobertura, con el objetivo de controlar el riesgo de duración y reducir la volatilidad.

 

Visión de Mercado

Los activos de riesgo, han continuado su senda alcista el último mes del año esta vez impulsados por los resultados en las elecciones de Reino Unido que, aunque abren la posibilidad de una salida sin acuerdo pospone esa posibilidad hasta finales del segundo trimestre (cuando deberán decidir si amplían el plazo de “transición” o salen, con o sin acuerdo, a finales del 2020). Del lado macro hemos visto una estabilización en la actividad manufacturera (las encuestas de actividad marcaron mínimos a la vuelta de verano) especialmente en EE.UU. y Asia.

Del lado de la demanda interna los datos de consumo siguen siendo robustos, apoyados por la creación de empleo y el crecimiento en los salarios, y han llevado a las primeras revisiones al alza de las previsiones de crecimiento.

La tregua en la guerra comercial anunciada en octubre ha seguido empujando a emergentes y EE.UU. En la Eurozona destaca el buen comportamiento de las pequeñas compañías, especialmente de los índices con más compañías tecnológicas (Alemania).

Por países, España recupera parte del mal comportamiento durante el año frente a los comparables. A nivel sectorial, los bancos apoyados por el repunte de las pendientes y el retail por los buenos resultados de lnditex y las alemanas más expuestas a comercio electrónico han sido los que mejor se han comportado.

En el lado opuesto telecos, alimentación y autos, afectado por la rotación sectorial. Este último impulso de los activos de riesgo ha elevado las tires en los bonos de gobierno que han repuntado hasta niveles de antes de verano en Europa, subiendo más en los plazos más largos. Los bonos corporativos de más riesgo han sido los que mejor se han comportado, llevando los spreads de crédito a los mínimos de los últimos meses.

El período de “risk on” iniciado en octubre ha permitido recuperar a los bonos de emergentes parte del terreno perdido desde el año pasado, siendo el mejor activo en renta fija en el último mes del año.

 

Análisis de rentabilidad del fondo de deuda emergente

La renta fija de mercados emergentes, casi como en todo el resto de clases de activo, subió cuando los participantes del mercado se volvieron muy optimistas después del acuerdo “Phase 1” entre EEUU y China.

Sin demasiados primarios, como es habitual en diciembre, los mercados secundarios mostraron un movimiento de compra técnica muy fuerte en un mercado no demasiado liquido hecho que, en nuestra opinión, ayudo al rally. Salvo en muy pocas excepciones, casi todos los bonos de la cartera terminaron en positivo.

A pesar de empezar el mes algunas figuras más abajo que en los máximos de agosto, algunos de los bonos de bajo grado crediticio de la cartera terminaron llegando o incluso rompiéndolos. En ese grupo nos podremos encontrar a los  bonos largos soberanos de Ucrania, Angola o Costa de Marfil.

Incluso en un nivel inferior, todos los bonos relacionados con Argentina tuvieron un fuerte rally a medida que el mercado esperaba las negociaciones del gobierno con los bonistas, no en vano, nuestra exposición a los bonos de YPF terminó siendo el mayor contribuidor a la rentabilidad en el último mes del año. Ecuador finalmente recibió la aprobación para el desembolso  por parte del FMI,

permitiendo a los bonos recuperarse a los niveles de antes del “selloff” de noviembre. El único contribuidor significativamente negativo en el mes fueron los bonos de Tullow Oil, cuyas acciones cayeron después de una actualización de expectativas de extracción y la dimisión del CEO. Los bonos tuvieron un movimiento de precio a la baja importante, pero recuperaron la mitad a medida que aparecieron compradores.

 

Actividad de cartera

En diciembre, el fondo no participó en ningún primario. Respecto a los mercados secundarios, el fondo empezó el mes vendiendo un bono financiero mientras aumentaba su exposición a Ucrania y empezaba una posición en los bonos de Frontera Energy, ya que un selloff en noviembre permitió la creación de un muy interesante nivel de entrada. A mediados de mes, el fondo aprovecho el rally para cristalizar algunos beneficios, en este sentido, vendimos toda la exposición en uno de los corporativos de Indonesia, vendimos los bonos ucranianos comprados a principios de mes y eliminamos la exposición a algunos emisores argentinos.

En el mes, el fondo también ha empezado una nueva posición en un corporativo turco y ha reducido levemente sus exposiciones a Belice, Yasar Holdings y Tullow Oil después de la recuperación en el precio del bono.

deuda emergente 

Visita el fondo de deuda emergente

Visita el fondo en Morningstar

 

 

 

140 comentarios en «Comentario Trea EM Credit Opportunities (diciembre)»

  1. I have learn some excellent stuff here. Certainly value
    bookmarking for revisiting. I wonder how so much attempt you set to create this kind of great informative website.

  2. You’re so interesting! I do not suppose I’ve read through something
    like this before. So wonderful to discover another person with some genuine
    thoughts on this subject matter. Really.. many
    thanks for starting this up. This site is something that is required
    on the web, someone with a little originality!

  3. Does your website have a contact page? I’m having trouble locating it but, I’d like to send you
    an e-mail. I’ve got some creative ideas for your
    blog you might be interested in hearing. Either way,
    great blog and I look forward to seeing it grow over time.

  4. hello!,I like your writing so much! share we keep in touch more approximately your article on AOL? I need an expert on this house to solve my problem. May be that is you! Looking ahead to see you.

  5. Wonderful website. A lot of helpful information here. I am sending it to some buddies ans also sharing in delicious. And naturally, thank you on your effort!

  6. you’re in reality a excellent webmaster. The web site loading speed is amazing. It seems that you are doing any distinctive trick. Furthermore, The contents are masterwork. you’ve performed a fantastic process in this topic!

  7. naturally like your web-site however you have to check the spelling on quite a few of your posts. Several of them are rife with spelling problems and I find it very troublesome to tell the truth however I’ll surely come again again.

  8. you’re in reality a excellent webmaster. The web site loading velocity is incredible. It sort of feels that you’re doing any unique trick. Moreover, The contents are masterwork. you’ve performed a wonderful job on this topic!

  9. I’ll right away grab your rss as I can’t in finding your email subscription link or e-newsletter service.

    Do you have any? Please allow me recognize so that I may just subscribe.
    Thanks.

  10. Does your blog have a contact page? I’m having a tough time locating it but, I’d like to shoot you an e-mail.
    I’ve got some creative ideas for your blog you might be interested in hearing.
    Either way, great site and I look forward to seeing it develop over time.

  11. I’ve been surfing online more than 3 hours today, yet I never found any
    interesting article like yours. It’s pretty worth enough for me.
    In my view, if all webmasters and bloggers made good content as you did,
    the internet will be a lot more useful than ever before.

  12. Fantastic blog! Do you have any tips and hints for aspiring writers?
    I’m hoping to start my own blog soon but I’m a little lost on everything.
    Would you propose starting with a free platform like WordPress or go for a paid option? There are so many options out there
    that I’m completely overwhelmed .. Any suggestions? Kudos!

  13. My developer is trying to convince me to move to .net from PHP.
    I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses.
    But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on a number of websites for about a year and am anxious about switching to another platform.
    I have heard good things about blogengine.net.
    Is there a way I can import all my wordpress content into it?
    Any kind of help would be greatly appreciated!

  14. Howdy, I do believe your blog may be having internet browser compatibility issues.
    When I look at your blog in Safari, it looks fine but when opening in I.E., it’s got some overlapping issues.

    I simply wanted to give you a quick heads up! Aside from that,
    fantastic site!

  15. Excellent weblog right here! Additionally your website so much up fast!

    What host are you the use of? Can I get your affiliate link in your host?
    I wish my web site loaded up as quickly as yours
    lol

  16. Howdy, Thеre’s no doubt thɑt youг website cօuld possjbly be
    haѵing internet broser compatibility issues. Ꮃhen I tаke а ⅼooқ aat
    your site in Safari, it looks fine hοwever ᴡhen оpening
    inn I.E., it’s got some overlapping issues.
    I simply wanted to provide үou witһ a quick heads սp!
    Besideѕ that, ցreat blog!

    Ⅿy blog :: bayfilm

  17. I dо agree wіth aall ⲟf tһe conceplts ʏoᥙ have presented too your post.
    Tһey’re really convincing and will certainlʏ wοrk.
    Stiⅼl, thе posts aree veгy short for newbies. Мay you please prolong them a bit from
    next timе?Thanks for thе post.

    My hоmepage; kurumsal kimlik

  18. This is really interesting, You are a very skilled blogger.
    I have joined your rss feed and look forward to seeking more of your magnificent post.

    Also, I’ve shared your website in my social networks!

  19. Thanks for any other informative web site. The place else may
    I am getting that kind of information written in such an ideal way?
    I’ve a venture that I am just now running on, and I’ve been on the look out for such information.

  20. Thank yoou a unch ffor sharing thiѕ witһ all people
    you really realize what үou’rе speaking about! Bookmarked.
    Ꮲlease alѕo visit my website =). Ꮃe coᥙld have ɑ hyperlink change contract ɑmong us

    Ꮇy webpage: soldiers (Damaris)

  21. Hi just wanted to give you a brief heads up and let you know a few
    of the images aren’t loading properly. I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue.
    I’ve tried it in two different browsers and both show the same outcome.

  22. When I originally commented I clicked the «Notify me when new comments are added»
    checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get four emails with the same comment.
    Is there any way you can remove me from that service?
    Cheers!

  23. My programmer is trying to persuade me to move to .net from
    PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the costs.

    But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using WordPress on various websites
    for about a year and am concerned about switching to another
    platform. I have heard excellent things about blogengine.net.
    Is there a way I can import all my wordpress content into it?
    Any kind of help would be really appreciated!

  24. Hi there I am so glad I ffound your webpage, I really found you by error, while
    I was browsing on Digg for something else, Regardless I
    am here now and would jusst like to say cheers foor a remarkable post
    and a all round enjoyable blog (I also love the theme/design),
    I don’t have time to read it all at the moment but I have bookmarked it aand also added in your RSS feeds,
    so when I have time I will bbe bqck to resad more, Please do keep up
    the awesome job.

  25. I do accept as true with all of the ideas you’ve offered for your post.
    They are very convincing and will definitely work. Nonetheless, the posts are too brief for
    starters. May just you please extend them a little from next time?
    Thank you for the post.

  26. Everything said was actually very reasonable. However, think
    about this, what if you wrote a catchier post title?

    I am not saying your content isn’t solid, but suppose you
    added a title that makes people desire more?
    I mean Comentario Trea EM Credit Opportunities (diciembre) – TREA AM is kinda
    vanilla. You could look at Yahoo’s home page and watch how they write news headlines to get people
    interested. You might add a video or a pic or two to get readers excited about everything’ve got to say.
    In my opinion, it could make your posts a little livelier.

  27. Undeniably imagine that which you said. Your favourite reason appeared to
    be at the internet the easiest thing to keep in mind of.
    I say to you, I definitely get annoyed whilst folks consider concerns
    that they just do not understand about. You controlled to
    hit the nail upon the top and defined out the entire thing without
    having side effect , other folks can take a signal. Will probably be back to
    get more. Thank you!

  28. My coder is trying to convince me to move to .net from
    PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses.
    But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on a
    variety of websites for about a year and am nervous about switching to another platform.

    I have heard very good things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can import all my wordpress posts into it?
    Any help would be really appreciated!

  29. You are so cool! I don’t believe I have read through something like that before.
    So great to discover another person with some unique thoughts
    on this topic. Seriously.. thank you for starting this up.

    This site is one thing that’s needed on the internet, someone with a little originality!

  30. I’m not sure exactly why but this weblog is loading extremely slow for me.
    Is anyone else having this problem or is it a problem on my
    end? I’ll check back later on and see if the
    problem still exists.

  31. Fantastic goods from you, man. I’ve consider your stuff previous to and you’re
    just extremely wonderful. I actually like what you have bought right here, certainly like what you’re saying and the way
    wherein you assert it. You are making it entertaining and you continue to care
    for to stay it wise. I cant wait to read far more from you.
    This is really a terrific web site.

  32. Have you ever considered publishing an ebook or guest authoring on other sites?
    I have a blog centered on the same subjects you discuss and would love to have you
    share some stories/information. I know my viewers would appreciate your work.
    If you are even remotely interested, feel free to send me an e-mail.

  33. Excellent post. Keep posting such kind of information on your site.
    Im really impressed by it.
    Hey there, You have performed an incredible job. I will certainly
    digg it and individually recommend to my friends.
    I’m sure they’ll be benefited from this web site.

  34. Does your blog have a contact page? I’m having problems locating it but, I’d
    like to send you an e-mail. I’ve got some suggestions
    for your blog you might be interested in hearing.
    Either way, great site and I look forward to seeing it develop over time.

  35. Good day I am so grateful I found your weblog, I really found you by mistake, while I was searching on Yahoo for something else, Anyhow I am here now and would just like to say thank you for a incredible post
    and a all round exciting blog (I also love the theme/design),
    I don’t have time to go through it all at the minute
    but I have book-marked it and also included your RSS feeds, so
    when I have time I will be back to read much more, Please do keep up
    the excellent job.

  36. Thank you for any other informative blog. The
    place else may I am getting that kind of information written in such a perfect approach?
    I’ve a undertaking that I’m simply now operating on,
    and I’ve been at the glance out for such info.

  37. Greetings I am so delighted I found your webpage, I really
    found you by mistake, while I was researching on Askjeeve for
    something else, Anyways I am here now and would just like to say thanks for a fantastic post and a all round exciting blog (I also love the theme/design), I don?t have time to read it all at the moment but I have bookmarked it and also added in your RSS
    feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read a great deal more, Please do keep up the fantastic
    work.

  38. I am really loving the theme/design of your web site.
    Do you ever run into any web browser compatibility problems?
    A few of my blog readers have complained about my blog not operating
    correctly in Explorer but looks great in Opera.
    Do you have any ideas to help fix this issue?

  39. Magnificent items from you, man. I’ve be mindful your stuff prior to and you are simply extremely excellent.
    I really like what you’ve bought here, really like what you’re stating and the way wherein you assert it.
    You’re making it enjoyable and you continue to take care of to stay it sensible.

    I can not wait to read far more from you. That
    is actually a great website.

  40. Good day! Would you mind if I share your blog with my facebook group?
    There’s a lot of folks that I think would really appreciate
    your content. Please let me know. Cheers

  41. Hello! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering if you knew where
    I could locate a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the
    same blog platform as yours and I’m having trouble finding one?

    Thanks a lot!

  42. you’re in reality a excellent webmaster. The website loading speed is amazing.
    It kind of feels that you’re doing any distinctive trick.
    Also, The contents are masterpiece. you’ve done a excellent
    activity in this subject!

  43. Right here is the perfect website for anybody who really wants to understand this
    topic. You understand a whole lot its almost hard to argue with you (not that I
    really will need to…HaHa). You definitely put a new spin on a topic that has been written about for decades.
    Excellent stuff, just great!

  44. Undeniably imagine that that you stated. Your favorite reason seemed to
    be on the web the simplest thing to keep in mind of.
    I say to you, I certainly get annoyed even as other people
    think about worries that they just do not know about.
    You managed to hit the nail upon the top and also defined out the
    whole thing with no need side-effects , people could take a signal.
    Will probably be back to get more. Thank you

  45. Wonderful goods from you, man. I’ve understand your stuff previous to and you are just too excellent.

    I really like what you’ve acquired here, certainly like
    what you are saying and the way in which you say it. You make it
    enjoyable and you still take care of to keep it wise.
    I can not wait to read far more from you. This is really
    a tremendous site.

  46. hey there and thank you for your information – I have certainly picked up
    anything new from right here. I did however expertise some technical
    points using this site, as I experienced to reload the site lots of times previous to
    I could get it to load properly. I had been wondering if your hosting
    is OK? Not that I am complaining, but slow loading instances times will sometimes affect
    your placement in google and can damage your high quality score if ads
    and marketing with Adwords. Well I’m adding this RSS to
    my email and could look out for a lot more of your
    respective exciting content. Make sure you update this again very soon.

  47. I’ve been browsing online greater than 3 hours these days, but I never found any interesting article like
    yours. It is beautiful value sufficient for me.
    In my opinion, if all website owners and bloggers made good content material as you probably did,
    the web can be a lot more helpful than ever before.

  48. Politechnika Częstochowska

    ul. J.H. Dąbrowskiego 69
    42-201 Częstochowa
    NIP: 573-011-14-01
    Informacje

    bip.svgBiuletyn Informacji Publicznej

    Zamówienia Publiczne

    Informacje o cookies

    Deklaracja dostępności

    Inspektor Ochrony Danych

    SARS-CoV-2
    Wydziały

    Wydział Budownictwa

    Wydział Elektryczny

    Wydział Inżynierii Mechanicznej i Informatyki

    Wydział Inżynierii Produkcji i Technologii Materiałów

    Wydział Infrastruktury i Środowiska

    Wydział Zarządzania

    logo ePUAP

    Adres skrytki podawczej Politechniki Częstochowskiej w systemie ePUAP:
    /PolitechnikaCzestochowska/SkrytkaESP

  49. Howdy! This post could not be written any better! Looking through this article reminds me of my previous roommate!
    He always kept talking about this. I most certainly will forward this information to him.
    Fairly certain he will have a great read. I appreciate you for sharing!

  50. Heya i am for the first time here. I found this board
    and I find It truly useful & it helped me out much.

    I hope to give something back and aid others like you helped me.

Deja un comentario